Rivian earnings preview: Production guidance and demand story in focus

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Pras Subramanian

Electric adventure-vehicle maker Rivian (RIVN) is on deck to report second quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, following a recent run-up in its stock fueled by positive headlines.

For the quarter, Wall Street is expecting Rivian to report revenue of $1 billion, with an adjusted EPS loss of $1.36. That revenue figure would represent a big increase from first quarter’s $661 million, and a 175% jump from $364 million reported a year ago. On an adjusted EBITDA basis, Rivian is expected to report a loss of $1.13 billion; it reported a loss of $1.305 billion in the year-ago quarter.

In July, Rivian reported second quarter deliveries hit 12,640 units, topping estimates and also representing a large improvement over first quarter deliveries of 7,946, which also topped expectations. Rivian also reaffirmed “it is on track to deliver on the 50,000 annual production guidance previously provided.”

Two quarters of strong production and delivery figures were a shot of good news for investors weary of Rivian’s previous production setbacks.

People look at Rivian electric trucks at the auto maker's newly opened storefront in the Meatpacking District of Manhattan on June 23, 2023 in New York City. The 5,000-square-foot location, Rivian’s first on the East Coast, displays its R1T and R1S electric vehicles and offers merchandise, test drives and a lounge and activity space for children. The Manhattan showroom is a temporary location until Rivian opens its permanent New York location in Brooklyn’s trendy Williamsburg neighborhood.  (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Rivian is scheduled to report quarterly results Tuesday. In this photo, electric trucks are on display at the company’s storefront in Manhattan on June 23 in New York City. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

“Production coming out of the gate — it was excuses. It was one step forward, two steps back for four or five quarters. Now [they] finally turned the corner, and I think the worst is in the rearview mirror,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said last month regarding Rivian’s Q2 deliveries.

“From a valuation perspective, $30 could be a base case,” he said.

Rivian shares also got a boost when the company announced it would be joining Tesla’s Supercharging network in 2024 and incorporate Tesla’s (TSLA) NACS (North American Charging Standard) plug into vehicles in 2025.

Rivian stock is up a massive 77% in the past three months, though shares have slipped 10% over the past five days following their recent meteoric rise. Despite the recent tear, the stock has fallen considerably from its $179 record high.

Many EV makers have been cutting prices and availing themselves of the federal EV tax credit of $7,500 when applicable as a way to gin up demand and boost sales. Rivian, however, builds trucks that are priced above the $80,000 price cap for the EV tax credit for trucks. Fellow EV-maker Lucid (LCID) just yesterday slashed prices of its Air sedan in order to boost demand for its relatively pricey EV, which is also priced above the EV tax credit threshold.

Turning back to financial performance, investors will be watching to see if the company reiterates or updates its guidance calling for an adjusted EBITDA loss of $4.3 billion for the year, which is a narrowing of the $5.2 billion EBITDA loss it had in 2022. Rivian has also said it expects to achieve positive gross profit in 2024.

From a liquidity perspective, Rivian reported it had $11.24 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of first quarter, down from the $12 billion it had at the end of the fourth quarter.

Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on Twitter and on Instagram.

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